Supported by the Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR) 17539924
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of urbanization on crime in South Africa. We assemble an original dataset combining yearly information on crime and urban population density at the municipality level over the 2011-2018 period. We use a shift-share instrumental variable where we combine the shifts (climate shocks at origins) with the shares (previous migration pattern to urban areas) as an instrument for urban population. We find that a one percent increase in urban population decreases pecuniary crime rate by 1.8 percent and has no effect on non-pecuniary crime rate. We highlight two mechanisms explaining this negative effect, namely a change in population composition and an increase of the social network density of migrants.
About Nelly Exbrayat
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