Event

Research Economic Seminar: Refugee, Diversity and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa Model

  • Conférencier  Rana Cömertpay, DEM, Université du Luxembourg

  • Lieu

    Participation by invitation Online via Webex

    LU

  • Thème(s)
    Sciences économiques & gestion

Despite mixed empirical evidence, refugees have been blamed for spreading conflict in receiving countries. We hypothesize that such relationship largely depends on the way population movements alter ethnic composition in refugee-hosting areas. To test that hypothesis, we exploit annual variations in the presence of refugees to approximate for the resulting changes in diversity in the refugee-hosting areas across 23 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We then assess the relationship between the revised refugee diversity indices and the likelihood of conflict between 2005 and 2016. We base our analysis on a theoretical model (Esteban and Ray, 2011) predicting contrasting effects on conflict between ethnic fractionalization and polarization. In line with the theoretical framework, the revised refugee polarization is found to exacerbate the risk of conflict. A one standard deviation increase in the polarization index raises the incidence of violent conflict by 5 percentage points. Such an effect corresponds to a 10 percent increase, at the mean. The opposite effect is found for the fractionalization index. We also conduct additional analysis based on individual data. Revised refugee polarization raises the likelihood of experiencing physical assault by 2.1 percentage points. Inversely, the equivalent change in the revised refugee fractionalization index decreases the likelihood of the likelihood of experiencing physical assault by 1.9 percentage points. Similar effect are found for interpersonal crime. Against alternative explanations, no effect can be found for ethnic attachment and trust. Our results should not be interpreted as evidence that refugees per se impact the likelihood of violence. Indeed, we do not find any significant correlation between the number of refugees and the occurrence of conflict. Instead, our results point to the risk of conflict when refugees exacerbate ethnic polarization in the hosting communities. On the contrary, a situation where refugee flows raises the level of ethnic fractionalization is likely to see an attenuated risk of violence. This certainly calls for specific interventions in refugee-hosting and polarized communities.